Track record

How each source has actually done on graded picks — no cherry-picking.

Updated daily.

Every graded 1X2 pick each source has made, scored the same way and never blended. Hit rate is how often the pick landed; ROI is what a flat 1-unit stake would have returned at the price we recorded. Both are history, not a forecast.

Hit rate
Share of graded picks that won. Says nothing about price — a 70% hit rate on 1.20 shots loses money.
ROI
Profit per unit staked, flat stakes, at the recorded odds. The number that actually pays rent.
n
Graded picks behind the figure. Anything under ~100 moves a lot with one weekend.
vs market
A league's Tofiko ROI minus the market baseline's over the same fixtures. A return with nothing to compare it to means nothing.
Sources
Tofiko is our model, Alia an outside opinion, Baseline the market-implied favourite. Never mixed together.
Sample size(opens in a new tab)Value betting(opens in a new tab)Closing line value(opens in a new tab)Expected value(opens in a new tab)

By source

1X2 · graded history
Tofikoour model
48%hit rate
n 2,022OK
ROI −7.5%on 2,022 priced picks
Aliaindependent second opinion
40%hit rate
n 2,288OK
ROI −7.1%on 2,288 priced picks
Baselinemarket-implied
51%hit rate
n 2,596OK
ROI −4.1%on 2,596 priced picks

What this window says

Tofiko landed 48% of 2,022 graded picks over the last 90 days and returned −7.5% at flat stakes across 2,022 priced picks.

The market baseline returned −4.1% over the same window, so Tofiko is 3.4 points behind it.

Both are losing money at closing odds.

By league

Tofiko 1X2 strength per competition

See where the model is strongest — with PRO