tofiko ~$predict --models=all --edge≥5%online

The analytics layer for the thinking bettor.

No tips. Just math.

Not a tipster. Not a black box. A transparent football analytics layer — predictions, a verified track record, your own My Picks tracker, Strategy Lab and advanced analytics, across Free, Pro & Max.

+20.78%
90-day backtest ROI
116 signals · Tier 1.5 Europe
+46.9%
Top strategy ROI
OU Momentum Over — Modeled
478
Leagues covered
3 models · calibrated daily
Founding price locked for 12 months· 14-day money-back· No card for the free tier

Figures are backtested results updated from live data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

MODEL CONSENSUS
3 / 3 Betis vs Levante
EDGE NOW
+17.1% La Liga · Home
OU MOMENTUM
+46.9% ROI · 90d
SIGNALS LIVE
17 qualifying today
● LA LIGA · LIVE EDGE3/3 models
Real Betis vs Levante
PickHome
Edge+17.1%
Odds2.25
→ drifted 1.98 → 2.25 (+14%)
01 / TODAY'S EDGE

Picks of the day, with the math attached.

2 signals free for everyone · the rest unlock with Pro. Every card shows model consensus, edge %, and odds-at-issue.

LA LIGASat 23 May · 21:00
Real Betis vs Levante UD
PickHome
Edge+17.1%
Odds2.25
Models3/3
→ drifted 1.98 → 2.25 (+14%)All 3 models agree · La Liga config: +12.2% ROI (90d)
SPANISH SEGUNDASun 24 May · 18:30
CD Mirandés vs Granada CF
PickAway
Edge+16.7%
Odds4.89
Models3/3
→ drifted 4.23 → 4.89 (+16%)Tier 1.5 Europe config · 116 signals · +12.2% ROI
SERIE AFri 22 May · 20:45
ACF Fiorentina vs Atalanta BC
PickDraw
Edge+9.4%
Odds3.50
Models2/3
→ drifted 3.30 → 3.50 (+6%)Dixon-Coles favors draw — Elo + Poisson lean home
PREMIER LEAGUESat 23 May · 17:30
Brighton vs Newcastle United
PickOver 2.5
Edge+11.2%
Odds1.92
Models3/3
→ drifted 1.84 → 1.92 (+4%)OU Momentum Over — Modeled strategy · +46.9% ROI

Odds-at-issue shown; markets move. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

02 / VERIFIED TRACK RECORD

If you'd backed our last 74 picks…

Flat 1-unit stake at closing odds. Every settled signal is published — wins and losses. No cherry-picking, no paywall on history.

+10.4%
90-day ROI
41 – 33
W – L
55.4%
Strike rate
74
Settled signals
RMATCHPICKODDSEDGESCORE
WChelsea v TottenhamPREMIER LEAGUE · 05/19Home2.15+6.3%21
WReal Zaragoza v GijónLA LIGA · 05/17Away4.49+18.4%13
LArsenal v BurnleyPREMIER LEAGUE · 05/18Draw10.45+7.2%10
WOGC Nice v FC MetzLIGUE 1 · 05/17Draw5.60+6.7%00
LCD Leganés v SD HuescaLA LIGA 2 · 05/18Home1.84+5.2%00
WBrentford v Crystal PalacePREMIER LEAGUE · 05/16BTTS Yes1.78+4.8%22
LLyon v RC LensLIGUE 1 · 05/17Draw4.21+5.5%04
WBologna v EmpoliSERIE A · 05/16Home1.66+8.9%30
▸ DOUBLE CHANCE · HONEST MARKET VIEW

A high win% means nothing without the price. We always show win-rate, average odds and ROI together.

1X (Home or Draw)
71.2%
avg odds1.46
ROI+3.9%
n312
X2 (Draw or Away)
68.5%
avg odds1.52
ROI+4.1%
n298
12 (Home or Away)
74.0%
avg odds1.33
ROI-1.6%
n341

Every settled signal published · no cherry-picking. Example data, updated live. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

▸ 04 / MY PICKS FREE

Your own tracker. Free — it just needs an account.

Star matches, log manual predictions, place virtual bets (stake + odds, never real money, no bookmaker handoff — ever). We auto-settle when the match ends and keep your personal analytics: win-rate, ROI, bankroll yield and cumulative P/L.

★ MY PICKS4 tracked · auto-settlingFREE ACCOUNT
MATCHPICKVIRTUAL BETRESULTP/L
LA LIGA
Real Betis v Levante
PickHOME
Virtual bet1.0u @ 2.25
WON2–1
+1.25u
SERIE A
Fiorentina v Atalanta
PickDRAW
Virtual bet1.0u @ 3.50
LIVE1–1 · 64'
BUNDESLIGA
Stuttgart v Freiburg
PickHOME
Virtual bet0.5u @ 2.10
OPENSun 15:30
PREMIER LEAGUE
Brighton v Newcastle
PickOVER 2.5
Virtual bet1.0u @ 1.92
LOST0–1
−1.00u
No real money · no bookmaker links · ever
MY PERFORMANCEAll-time
58%
win rate
+12.3%
ROI
+8.6%
Bankroll yield
2.31
Avg odds
CUMULATIVE P/L+8.6u
PROWant the model's Suggestions on what to track next? Advanced, tier-gated picks live in Pro & Max.
05 / MODELS & ACCURACY

Three independent models. Public scoreboard.

Tracked against 4,722 finished matches over 90 days. Each model is Platt-calibrated per league group.

Dixon-Coles49.9%

Poisson with low-score draw correction + recent-form weighting.

Predictions1,573
Correct785
CalibrationPlatt
Elo49.8%

Rating-based. Team strength tracked via win/loss point exchange.

Predictions1,571
Correct784
CalibrationPlatt
Poisson50.0%

Goals-based probability model using historical scoring rates.

Predictions1,576
Correct788
CalibrationPlatt
PRO+Confusion matrix, per-league breakdown and weekly calibration trend live in the Accuracy Dashboard.
06 / STRATEGY LAB

Backtested strategies. Equity curves. No hand-waving.

Live ROI tracked daily. Every strategy shows its rule set and signal list.

★ FEATURED · LIVE
OU Momentum Over — Modeled
Poisson goal expectancy ≥ 2.8 · live drift ≥ 4% on Over · 84 signals · 90-day window
90d ROI+46.9%
FEB 16 → MAY 19 · 1.92 avg odds · 65% strike
Tier 1.5 Europe — DC Consensus
116 signals · live
+20.78%
Away Surge — Drift ≥ 12%
64 signals · live
+18.4%
Home Cinderella — Draw → Home
41 signals · beta
+11.2%
PRO+ full lab · custom backtests in Max
07 / COVERAGE

478 leagues, calibrated separately.

Pro covers the top leagues; Max covers all 478. Each league group gets its own Platt calibration, refreshed weekly.

478
leagues · Europe · Americas · Asia · Africa · Oceania
PRO · top leaguesMAX · all 478
Premier League
La Liga
Bundesliga
Serie A
Ligue 1
Primeira
Eredivisie
Brasileirão
Primera Argentina
Liga MX
Süper Lig
J1 League
+466 more
08 / HOW IT WORKS · WHY TRUST IT

Data in. Math out. Every step auditable.

No prediction is made without showing what produced it.

DATA
Match data, lineups & closing odds
4.7M matches · 478 leagues · refreshed 06:00 UTC
3 MODELS
Poisson · Dixon-Coles · Elo
Platt-calibrated probabilities per league group
MARKET
Compare model vs. book-implied
edge = p(model) − p(book)
SIGNAL
Publish only edge ≥ 5%
with the drift, the rule and the ROI config
Not a tipster

We sell the math, not picks. Every signal is reproducible from the formula — no "lock of the day".

Not a black box

Three named models, a public scoreboard, and every settled result published. You can check our work.

No conflict of interest

Zero bookmaker affiliates. No "bet now" buttons, no handoff. You bring your own book.

▸ 09 / PRICING

Free account, free tracker. Pay only for the edge.

14-day money-back · cancel anytime · VAT included · annual ≈ 2 months free. Founding launch price — locked 12 months, regular pricing after.

FREE Free account · no card
  • 2 Today's Edge signals / day
  • Live scores & standings
  • ★ My Picks — watchlist
  • Manual predictions
  • Virtual bets + auto-settlement
  • Personal analytics dashboard
★ My Picks lives here — free forever with an account.
PRO / MAX Pro / Max unlock
  • Advanced & tier-gated Suggestions
  • All signals + rule-based “Why”
  • Strategy Lab
  • Accuracy Dashboard
  • Email / Telegram alerts
  • Wider coverage — Max = all 478
  • Custom backtest tool
Everything in Free, plus the analytics layer pros pay for.
Free
Try the math.
€0always free
No card required
Create a free account
  • 2 Today's Edge signals / day
  • Live scores & standings
  • Watchlist & match history
  • ×Rule-based reasoning ('Why')
  • ×Every signal, top leagues
  • ×Email alerts · daily digest
  • and more — unlock with Pro
MOST POPULAR
Pro
For the serious recreational bettor.
€8.99€14.99/ month
▸ Launch price€14.99/mo after launch · locked 12 months
Everything in Free, plus
  • All Today's Edge signals (top leagues)
  • Rule-based reasoning ('Why')
  • AI match analysis (cost-efficient)
  • Strategy Lab access
  • Accuracy dashboard
  • Email alerts · daily digest
BEST VALUE
Max
Depth & breadth for sharp bettors.
€14.99€24.99/ month
▸ Launch price€24.99/mo after launch · locked 12 months
Everything in Pro, plus
  • Everything in Pro
  • All 478 leagues
  • Deeper AI analysis (H2H, form, odds movement, weather)
  • Telegram real-time alerts
  • Custom backtest tool
  • Priority support
✓ no card for free tier✓ cancel any time✓ Stripe-hosted checkout18+ · play responsibly · not financial advice
▸ GET STARTED

Stop guessing. Start measuring.

Create a free account and get the full My Picks tracker today. No card required. Founding launch price — locked 12 months, regular pricing after on paid plans.

No card for the free tier · 14-day money-back on Pro & Max