Guides & Tools
Betting guides that start with the price
Betting is a pricing problem before it is a football problem. These guides explain how odds encode probability, where a real edge could come from, and how to tell one from a lucky month — with free calculators for every formula along the way.
- Guides
- 36 guides
- Calculators
- 17 calculators
- Price
- Free · no signup
Start here
Read in this order if you're new. Each one assumes the one before it, and together they cover deciding what to bet and how much to stake.
- What Is Value Betting? A Plain-English GuideValue betting means backing outcomes priced higher than their true probability. See it on a live meter, learn why strike rate is a trap, and where a real edge comes from.
- Expected Value in Betting: The Number That Decides EverythingExpected value is the average profit or loss a bet makes if you could repeat it forever. Calculate EV on any bet, see why most bets are negative, and how to find the positive ones.
- Bankroll Management: Why Staking Beats PickingBankroll management decides whether a real edge survives long enough to pay out. Learn flat staking, why chasing losses ruins you, and watch it play out in a live simulation.
- Staking Plans Compared: Flat, Kelly and the Progressions That Ruin YouFlat stakes, percentage of bankroll, Kelly, fractional Kelly, Martingale, Fibonacci and d'Alembert — what each one actually does to your money during a losing run, and which of them can bust you.
- The Kelly Criterion: Sizing Bets to Your EdgeThe Kelly criterion tells you exactly how much to stake based on your edge. Learn the formula, why full Kelly is too aggressive, and calculate your stake instantly.
- The Martingale System: Why Doubling Up Always Ends the Same WayThe Martingale strategy — doubling your stake after every loss — feels unbeatable and ruins bettors anyway. Here's the math, and a calculator showing exactly when it breaks.
Strategy
How to decide what to bet, and how much
What Is Value Betting? A Plain-English GuideValue betting means backing outcomes priced higher than their true probability. See it on a live meter, learn why strike rate is a trap, and where a real edge comes from.
3 min5 sections
Expected Value in Betting: The Number That Decides EverythingExpected value is the average profit or loss a bet makes if you could repeat it forever. Calculate EV on any bet, see why most bets are negative, and how to find the positive ones.3 min5 sections
Bankroll Management: Why Staking Beats PickingBankroll management decides whether a real edge survives long enough to pay out. Learn flat staking, why chasing losses ruins you, and watch it play out in a live simulation.3 min5 sections
Staking Plans Compared: Flat, Kelly and the Progressions That Ruin YouFlat stakes, percentage of bankroll, Kelly, fractional Kelly, Martingale, Fibonacci and d'Alembert — what each one actually does to your money during a losing run, and which of them can bust you.6 min6 sections
The Kelly Criterion: Sizing Bets to Your EdgeThe Kelly criterion tells you exactly how much to stake based on your edge. Learn the formula, why full Kelly is too aggressive, and calculate your stake instantly.3 min5 sections
The Martingale System: Why Doubling Up Always Ends the Same WayThe Martingale strategy — doubling your stake after every loss — feels unbeatable and ruins bettors anyway. Here's the math, and a calculator showing exactly when it breaks.3 min5 sections
Bet Types
What each market actually settles on
1X2 Explained: Football's Default Market, and the One Bookmakers Price Best1X2 is the home-draw-away match result market. How it settles, why the draw makes football harder to price than most sports, why the three odds sum to more than 100%, and how goal models derive it.
6 min5 sections
Over/Under 2.5 Goals Explained: The Market That Ignores the WinnerOver/Under 2.5 goals is football's biggest totals market — you bet on how many goals, not who wins. How the .5 line works, what drives totals prices, and how goal-based models price this market from expected goals.2 min3 sections
BTTS — Both Teams To Score, ExplainedBTTS asks one question: do both sides find the net? How the market settles, what actually drives BTTS probability, why it's not the same bet as Over 2.5, and how goal models price it.2 min4 sections
Double Chance Betting: Covering Two Outcomes at OnceDouble Chance covers two of the three 1X2 outcomes in one bet — 1X, 12 or X2. How the prices relate to 1X2 odds, when the safety is worth the shrunken payout, and the draw-no-bet comparison.2 min4 sections
Draw No Bet: Paying for the Draw to Be RefundedDraw no bet removes the draw from 1X2 — if the match is level your stake comes back. How to derive the fair DNB price, why it is identical to Asian handicap 0.0, and how it compares to double chance.6 min5 sections
Asian Handicap Explained: Quarter Lines, Pushes and AllAsian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goal head start — including half and quarter lines. How -0.5, -0.75 and -1.0 actually settle, what a push is, and how split stakes work, with a full settlement table.3 min4 sections
Math & Models
The numbers under the prices
How Our Models Work: Poisson, Dixon-Coles and EloTofiko runs two families of football models — goal-based (Poisson and Dixon-Coles) and strength-based (Elo) — and blends them into one ensemble probability. Here's what each one actually does, in plain words.
3 min3 sections
The Poisson Distribution: Turning Expected Goals Into ScorelinesOne number in, every scoreline out. How the Poisson distribution turns expected goals into a grid of results, why 1X2, Over/Under and BTTS are just sums of that grid, and where the maths breaks.7 min6 sections
The Brier Score: How We Grade Our Own PredictionsThe Brier score is the standard way to measure how good a set of probabilities is. Learn how it works in two minutes, what counts as a good score in football, and how to read Tofiko's model-vs-market Performance page.3 min4 sections
Fair Odds: What the Bookmaker's Margin HidesBookmaker odds always overstate every outcome's probability — that's the margin, their built-in fee. Learn how to strip it out, why the naive method gets favourites and longshots wrong, and why every market % on Tofiko is margin-free.3 min3 sections
Calibration: The Only Promise a Prediction Can KeepA 65% prediction isn't 'right' or 'wrong' on one match — it's a promise about the long run. Calibration checks whether those promises are kept: do 65% calls win 65% of the time? Here's how it works and how we test ourselves weekly.2 min4 sections
Expected Goals (xG), Explained Without the HypexG scores every shot by how often chances like it go in. It describes a performance better than the scoreline does — but it discards finishing, ignores game state, and providers disagree.6 min6 sections
Calculators
Free tools — no signup, nothing stored
Odds Converter — Decimal, Fractional, American & Implied ProbabilityConvert betting odds instantly between decimal, fractional, and American formats, and see the implied probability behind any price.Free · runs in your browserFair Odds Calculator — Remove the Bookmaker Margin from Any 1X2 BookEnter the three 1X2 prices and see the bookmaker's margin, the market's true (fair) probabilities via the power method, and the fair odds you'd get in a world without the fee.Free · runs in your browserExpected Value Calculator — Is Your Bet +EV?Free expected value calculator. Enter the odds and your win probability to see if a bet is positive or negative EV, and your expected return per stake.Free · runs in your browserKelly Criterion Calculator — Optimal Bet Size From Your EdgeWork out exactly how much to stake. Enter the decimal odds, your win probability, and bankroll to get the Kelly-optimal stake, plus safer half- and quarter-Kelly amounts.Free · runs in your browserBreak-Even Calculator — The Strike Rate Every Price DemandsAny price sets a bar: the percentage of bets you must win just to stand still. Work out the break-even strike rate for any odds, and what your actual hit rate is worth at them.Free · runs in your browserPoisson Calculator — Scoreline, 1X2, Over/Under & BTTS ProbabilitiesTurn two expected-goals numbers into a full grid of scorelines, then read match result, Over/Under 2.5 and BTTS probabilities straight off it — with the Dixon-Coles low-score correction built in.Free · runs in your browser
Where the guides end and the product starts
Everything here is method you can apply anywhere. Tofiko runs that method at scale — model probabilities against live prices across hundreds of leagues — and publishes how well it does, losing runs included.