Exeter City F.C.vs
Cardiff City F.C.Exeter City F.C. vs Cardiff City F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
EFL League One 2025-2026Sat, 14 Mar 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: finished
Final: Exeter City F.C. 0–4 Cardiff City F.C.
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Cardiff City F.C.51%
- Exeter City F.C. 26%
- Draw 23%
- Cardiff City F.C. 51%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Cardiff City F.C., rating it at 51.4%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Exeter City F.C. won none of them. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 51.4% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Cardiff City F.C.'s last 5 produced 33 goals — 6.6 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 5. Exeter City F.C.'s 5 produced 11, at 2.2 per game.
The model puts the draw at 23.1%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Cardiff City F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 6.6 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Exeter City F.C.: DLWLL
Cardiff City F.C.: WWWLL
Head-to-head
- 2Games
- 2.50Avg goals
- 0%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Exeter City F.C. vs Cardiff City F.C. | 0–4 |
| 2025-12-26 | Cardiff City F.C. vs Exeter City F.C. | 1–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Exeter City F.C. vs Cardiff City F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Cardiff City F.C. (51% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Exeter City F.C. vs Cardiff City F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 14 Mar 2026 15:00 GMT — EFL League One 2025-2026.
- What is the Exeter City F.C. vs Cardiff City F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.50 goals per game.