How to decide what to bet, and how much

Strategy

Strategy is everything that happens before you look at a fixture: how you decide a price is wrong, how much you stake when it is, and how you tell a real edge from a lucky month. Read these in order — each one assumes the last.

11 guides · about 51 min to read all

What you'll take away

  • Why a bet is good or bad because of its price, not its result
  • How to size stakes so a losing run can't end your season
  • Which staking systems survive contact with reality, and which are dressed-up ruin
  • How to measure whether you actually have an edge — and how long that takes

Strategy

  1. What Is Value Betting? A Plain-English GuideValue betting means backing outcomes priced higher than their true probability. See it on a live meter, learn why strike rate is a trap, and where a real edge comes from.
  2. Expected Value in Betting: The Number That Decides EverythingExpected value is the average profit or loss a bet makes if you could repeat it forever. Calculate EV on any bet, see why most bets are negative, and how to find the positive ones.
  3. Bankroll Management: Why Staking Beats PickingBankroll management decides whether a real edge survives long enough to pay out. Learn flat staking, why chasing losses ruins you, and watch it play out in a live simulation.
  4. Staking Plans Compared: Flat, Kelly and the Progressions That Ruin YouFlat stakes, percentage of bankroll, Kelly, fractional Kelly, Martingale, Fibonacci and d'Alembert — what each one actually does to your money during a losing run, and which of them can bust you.
  5. The Kelly Criterion: Sizing Bets to Your EdgeThe Kelly criterion tells you exactly how much to stake based on your edge. Learn the formula, why full Kelly is too aggressive, and calculate your stake instantly.
  6. The Martingale System: Why Doubling Up Always Ends the Same WayThe Martingale strategy — doubling your stake after every loss — feels unbeatable and ruins bettors anyway. Here's the math, and a calculator showing exactly when it breaks.
  7. Closing Line Value: The Only Scoreboard That Answers in a SeasonCLV compares the price you took to the price the market closed at. It measures the decision instead of the result, which is why it produces a verdict thousands of bets before profit can.
  8. Sample Size: How Many Bets Before You Know You Have an EdgeA season of bets tells you almost nothing about whether your method works. Here is the arithmetic that produces the number, why losing runs prove nothing, and what to measure instead of profit.
  9. Arbitrage Betting: Real, Legal, and Mostly Not Worth ItAn arb backs every outcome across two books at prices summing under 100%, locking a profit. The maths takes a minute — line moves, voids, settlement rules and account limits are the whole story.
  10. Line Shopping: The Edge That Needs No Forecasting SkillTaking the best available price on every bet needs no model and no opinion. What the gap between bookmakers is worth over a season, and why it is the same thing as beating the close.
  11. Cash Out: What the Bookmaker Is Actually Offering YouA cash-out offer is the bookmaker buying your bet back at a price they never show you. How to work out what your open bet is worth, and when accepting less than that is still the right call.

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