Southampton F.C.vs
Burnley F.C.Southampton F.C. vs Burnley F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
EFL ChampionshipWed, 09 Dec 2026 19:45 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Southampton F.C.62%
- Southampton F.C. 62%
- Draw 22%
- Burnley F.C. 16%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Southampton F.C., rating it at 62.0%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and Southampton F.C. won none of them. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 62.0% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Burnley F.C.'s last 5 produced 18 goals — 3.6 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 5. Southampton F.C.'s 5 produced 10, at 2.0 per game.
The model puts the draw at 22.0%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 4 games, no win for the side we back.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Southampton F.C.: WWWDD
Burnley F.C.: DLLDL
Head-to-head
- 4Games
- 3.00Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-21 | Burnley vs Southampton | 2–0 |
| 2021-10-23 | Southampton vs Burnley | 2–2 |
| 2021-04-04 | Southampton vs Burnley | 3–2 |
| 2020-09-26 | Burnley vs Southampton | 0–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Southampton F.C. vs Burnley F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Southampton F.C. (62% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Southampton F.C. vs Burnley F.C. kick off?
- Wed, 09 Dec 2026 19:45 GMT — EFL Championship.
- What is the Southampton F.C. vs Burnley F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 2 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 3.00 goals per game.