Manchester City F.C.vs
AFC BournemouthManchester City F.C. vs AFC Bournemouth Prediction, H2H & Stats
English Premier LeagueSun, 23 Aug 2026 13:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Manchester City F.C.72%
- Manchester City F.C. 72%
- Draw 17%
- AFC Bournemouth 10%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Manchester City F.C., rating it at 72.1%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 8 times, and Manchester City F.C. won 2 of 8, with 1 drawn. Across 8 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. AFC Bournemouth's last 5 produced 29 goals — 5.8 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 5. Manchester City F.C.'s 5 produced 12, at 2.4 per game.
The model puts the draw at 17.4%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- AFC Bournemouth's games are very high-scoring at 5.8 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Manchester City F.C.: WDLDW
AFC Bournemouth: DWWWD
Head-to-head
- 8Games
- 3.75Avg goals
- 75%Both scored
- 75%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | AFC Bournemouth vs Manchester City F.C. | 1–1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Manchester City F.C. vs AFC Bournemouth | 3–1 |
| 2025-05-20 | Manchester City F.C. vs AFC Bournemouth | 3–1 |
| 2024-11-02 | AFC Bournemouth vs Manchester City F.C. | 2–1 |
| 2024-02-24 | AFC Bournemouth vs Manchester City | 0–1 |
| 2023-11-04 | Manchester City vs AFC Bournemouth | 6–1 |
| 2023-02-25 | AFC Bournemouth vs Manchester City | 1–4 |
| 2022-08-13 | Manchester City vs AFC Bournemouth | 4–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Manchester City F.C. vs AFC Bournemouth?
- Tofiko's model favours Manchester City F.C. (72% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Manchester City F.C. vs AFC Bournemouth kick off?
- Sun, 23 Aug 2026 13:00 GMT — English Premier League.
- What is the Manchester City F.C. vs AFC Bournemouth head-to-head record?
- In their last 8 meetings: 5 home wins, 1 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 3.75 goals per game.