Modenavs
Calcio PadovaModena 1-2 Calcio Padova — Result, H2H & Form
Italian Serie BSat, 28 Feb 2026 14:00 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Modena54%
- Modena 54%
- Draw 25%
- Calcio Padova 21%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick Modena, rating it at 53.6%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Modena won none of them. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 53.6% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 25.2%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 2 games, no win for the side we back.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 5 Sep 2026.
Modena: WWLDW
Calcio Padova: DWLDW
Head-to-head
As of 5 Sep 2026.
- 2Games
- 2.50Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Modena vs Calcio Padova | 1–2 |
| 2026-01-11 | Calcio Padova vs Modena | 2–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Modena vs Calcio Padova?
- Tofiko's model favours Modena (54% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Modena vs Calcio Padova kick off?
- Sat, 28 Feb 2026 14:00 GMT — Italian Serie B.
- What is the Modena vs Calcio Padova head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.50 goals per game.