Sagan Tosuvs
Roasso KumamotoSagan Tosu 4-2 Roasso Kumamoto — Result, H2H & Form
J2 League 2026Sat, 20 Sep 2025 10:00 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Sagan Tosu56%
- Sagan Tosu 56%
- Draw 23%
- Roasso Kumamoto 21%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Sagan Tosu, rating it at 55.8%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and Sagan Tosu won 2 of 3. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 55.8% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Sagan Tosu's last 5 produced 14 goals — 2.8 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 2. Roasso Kumamoto's 5 produced 5, at 1.0 per game.
The model puts the draw at 23.3%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 1 Sep 2026.
Sagan Tosu: DWLDW
Roasso Kumamoto: WLDDD
Head-to-head
As of 1 Sep 2026.
- 3Games
- 4.00Avg goals
- 67%Both scored
- 67%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Roasso Kumamoto vs Sagan Tosu | 0–2 |
| 2025-09-20 | Sagan Tosu vs Roasso Kumamoto | 4–2 |
| 2025-03-30 | Roasso Kumamoto vs Sagan Tosu | 3–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Sagan Tosu vs Roasso Kumamoto?
- Tofiko's model favours Sagan Tosu (56% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Sagan Tosu vs Roasso Kumamoto kick off?
- Sat, 20 Sep 2025 10:00 GMT — J2 League 2026.
- What is the Sagan Tosu vs Roasso Kumamoto head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 4.00 goals per game.