Lille OSCvs
Montpellier HSCLille OSC 1-0 Montpellier HSC — Result, H2H & Form
Ligue 1 2024-2025Sat, 08 Mar 2025 18:00 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Lille OSC67%
- Lille OSC 67%
- Draw 20%
- Montpellier HSC 12%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Lille OSC, rating it at 67.4%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Lille OSC won 7 of 10, with 3 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. Lille OSC's last 5 produced 18 goals — 3.6 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 3. Montpellier HSC's 5 produced 10, at 2.0 per game.
The model puts the draw at 20.4%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 2 Sep 2026.
Lille OSC: DWDWW
Montpellier HSC: DWWDW
Head-to-head
As of 2 Sep 2026.
- 10Games
- 2.40Avg goals
- 60%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-08 | Lille OSC vs Montpellier HSC | 1–0 |
| 2024-12-01 | Montpellier HSC vs Lille OSC | 2–2 |
| 2024-01-28 | Montpellier HSC vs Lille OSC | 0–0 |
| 2023-09-03 | Lille OSC vs Montpellier HSC | 1–0 |
| 2023-04-16 | Lille OSC vs Montpellier HSC | 2–1 |
| 2022-09-04 | Montpellier HSC vs Lille OSC | 1–3 |
| 2022-02-12 | Montpellier HSC vs Lille OSC | 0–1 |
| 2021-08-29 | Lille OSC vs Montpellier HSC | 2–1 |
| 2021-04-16 | Lille OSC vs Montpellier HSC | 1–1 |
| 2020-12-23 | Montpellier HSC vs Lille OSC | 2–3 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Lille OSC vs Montpellier HSC?
- Tofiko's model favours Lille OSC (67% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Lille OSC vs Montpellier HSC kick off?
- Sat, 08 Mar 2025 18:00 GMT — Ligue 1 2024-2025.
- What is the Lille OSC vs Montpellier HSC head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 4 home wins, 3 draws, 3 away wins, averaging 2.40 goals per game.