Montpellier HSCvs
Olympique LyonnaisMontpellier HSC 1-4 Olympique Lyonnais — Result, H2H & Form
Ligue 1 2024-2025Sun, 16 Feb 2025 14:00 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Olympique Lyonnais54%
- Montpellier HSC 25%
- Draw 22%
- Olympique Lyonnais 54%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Olympique Lyonnais, rating it at 53.7%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Montpellier HSC won 3 of 10. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 21.6%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 2 Sep 2026.
Montpellier HSC: DWWDW
Olympique Lyonnais: DLWDW
Head-to-head
As of 2 Sep 2026.
- 10Games
- 4.00Avg goals
- 80%Both scored
- 80%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-16 | Montpellier HSC vs Olympique Lyonnais | 1–4 |
| 2025-01-04 | Olympique Lyonnais vs Montpellier HSC | 1–0 |
| 2024-02-11 | Montpellier HSC vs Lyonnais | 1–2 |
| 2023-08-19 | Lyonnais vs Montpellier HSC | 1–4 |
| 2023-05-07 | Lyonnais vs Montpellier HSC | 5–4 |
| 2022-10-22 | Montpellier HSC vs Lyonnais | 1–2 |
| 2022-04-23 | Lyonnais vs Montpellier HSC | 5–2 |
| 2021-11-28 | Montpellier HSC vs Lyonnais | 0–1 |
| 2021-02-13 | Lyonnais vs Montpellier HSC | 1–2 |
| 2020-09-15 | Montpellier HSC vs Lyonnais | 2–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Montpellier HSC vs Olympique Lyonnais?
- Tofiko's model favours Olympique Lyonnais (54% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Montpellier HSC vs Olympique Lyonnais kick off?
- Sun, 16 Feb 2025 14:00 GMT — Ligue 1 2024-2025.
- What is the Montpellier HSC vs Olympique Lyonnais head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 4 home wins, 0 draws, 6 away wins, averaging 4.00 goals per game.