Olympique de Marseillevs
Montpellier HSCOlympique de Marseille 5-1 Montpellier HSC — Result, H2H & Form
Ligue 1 2024-2025Sat, 19 Apr 2025 19:05 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Olympique de Marseille68%
- Olympique de Marseille 68%
- Draw 19%
- Montpellier HSC 13%
The de-vigged market number is a PRO feature — free to start, PRO unlocks it.
Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Olympique de Marseille, rating it at 67.9%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Olympique de Marseille won 2 of 10, with 3 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 19.4%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 2 Sep 2026.
Olympique de Marseille: LWLWW
Montpellier HSC: DWWDW
Head-to-head
As of 2 Sep 2026.
- 10Games
- 4.00Avg goals
- 80%Both scored
- 70%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-19 | Olympique de Marseille vs Montpellier HSC | 5–1 |
| 2024-10-20 | Montpellier HSC vs Olympique de Marseille | 0–5 |
| 2024-02-25 | Marseille vs Montpellier HSC | 4–1 |
| 2023-12-20 | Montpellier HSC vs Marseille | 1–1 |
| 2023-03-31 | Marseille vs Montpellier HSC | 1–1 |
| 2023-01-02 | Montpellier HSC vs Marseille | 1–2 |
| 2022-04-10 | Marseille vs Montpellier HSC | 2–0 |
| 2021-08-08 | Montpellier HSC vs Marseille | 2–3 |
| 2021-04-10 | Montpellier HSC vs Marseille | 3–3 |
| 2021-01-06 | Marseille vs Montpellier HSC | 3–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Olympique de Marseille vs Montpellier HSC?
- Tofiko's model favours Olympique de Marseille (68% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Olympique de Marseille vs Montpellier HSC kick off?
- Sat, 19 Apr 2025 19:05 GMT — Ligue 1 2024-2025.
- What is the Olympique de Marseille vs Montpellier HSC head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 4 home wins, 3 draws, 3 away wins, averaging 4.00 goals per game.