Nantesvs
ESTAC TroyesNantes 2-2 ESTAC Troyes — Result, H2H & Form
Ligue 1 2022-2023Sun, 23 Apr 2023 13:00 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Nantes51%
- Nantes 51%
- Draw 24%
- ESTAC Troyes 25%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick Nantes, rating it at 51.1%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and Nantes won 1 of 4, with 2 drawn. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 51.1% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Nantes's last 5 produced 23 goals — 4.6 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 5. ESTAC Troyes's 5 produced 14, at 2.8 per game.
The model puts the draw at 24.1%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Nantes's games are very high-scoring at 4.6 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 3 Sep 2026.
Nantes: DLLLW
ESTAC Troyes: WDDDW
Head-to-head
As of 3 Sep 2026.
- 4Games
- 1.75Avg goals
- 25%Both scored
- 25%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-23 | Nantes vs ESTAC Troyes | 2–2 |
| 2022-12-28 | ESTAC Troyes vs Nantes | 0–0 |
| 2022-03-12 | ESTAC Troyes vs Nantes | 1–0 |
| 2021-10-03 | Nantes vs ESTAC Troyes | 2–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Nantes vs ESTAC Troyes?
- Tofiko's model favours Nantes (51% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Nantes vs ESTAC Troyes kick off?
- Sun, 23 Apr 2023 13:00 GMT — Ligue 1 2022-2023.
- What is the Nantes vs ESTAC Troyes head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 2 home wins, 2 draws, 0 away wins, averaging 1.75 goals per game.