Paris Saint-Germain FCvs
FC MetzParis Saint-Germain FC vs FC Metz Prediction, H2H & Stats
Ligue 1Sat, 21 Feb 2026 20:05 GMTStatus: finished
Final: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3–0 FC Metz
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Paris Saint-Germain FC83%
- Paris Saint-Germain FC 83%
- Draw 13%
- FC Metz 4%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Paris Saint-Germain FC, rating it at 82.7%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 8 times, and Paris Saint-Germain FC won 2 of 8. Across 8 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. FC Metz's last 5 produced 19 goals — 3.8 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 4. Paris Saint-Germain FC's 5 produced 10, at 2.0 per game.
The model puts the draw at 13.4%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Paris Saint-Germain FC: DLWWD
FC Metz: WWWWD
Head-to-head
- 8Games
- 3.38Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 75%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Paris Saint-Germain FC vs FC Metz | 3–0 |
| 2025-12-13 | FC Metz vs Paris Saint-Germain FC | 2–3 |
| 2024-05-19 | FC Metz vs Paris Saint-Germain | 0–2 |
| 2023-12-20 | Paris Saint-Germain vs FC Metz | 3–1 |
| 2022-05-21 | Paris Saint-Germain vs FC Metz | 5–0 |
| 2021-09-22 | FC Metz vs Paris Saint-Germain | 1–2 |
| 2021-04-24 | FC Metz vs Paris Saint-Germain | 1–3 |
| 2020-09-16 | Paris Saint-Germain vs FC Metz | 1–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Paris Saint-Germain FC vs FC Metz?
- Tofiko's model favours Paris Saint-Germain FC (83% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Paris Saint-Germain FC vs FC Metz kick off?
- Sat, 21 Feb 2026 20:05 GMT — Ligue 1.
- What is the Paris Saint-Germain FC vs FC Metz head-to-head record?
- In their last 8 meetings: 4 home wins, 0 draws, 4 away wins, averaging 3.38 goals per game.