Calcio Padovavs
US Avellino 1912Calcio Padova 2-2 US Avellino 1912 — Result, H2H & Form
Italian Serie BTue, 30 Sep 2025 18:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Calcio Padova45%
- Calcio Padova 45%
- Draw 25%
- US Avellino 1912 30%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick Calcio Padova, rating it at 44.8%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Calcio Padova won none of them. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 44.8% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. US Avellino 1912's last 5 produced 20 goals — 4.0 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 4. Calcio Padova's 5 produced 12, at 2.4 per game.
The model puts the draw at 24.9%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 2 games, no win for the side we back.
- US Avellino 1912's games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 5 Sep 2026.
Calcio Padova: DWLDW
US Avellino 1912: WLLDL
Head-to-head
As of 5 Sep 2026.
- 2Games
- 2.50Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | US Avellino 1912 vs Calcio Padova | 1–0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Calcio Padova vs US Avellino 1912 | 2–2 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Calcio Padova vs US Avellino 1912?
- Tofiko's model favours Calcio Padova (45% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Calcio Padova vs US Avellino 1912 kick off?
- Tue, 30 Sep 2025 18:30 GMT — Italian Serie B.
- What is the Calcio Padova vs US Avellino 1912 head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins, averaging 2.50 goals per game.