Bayer Leverkusenvs
Hertha BSC BerlinBayer Leverkusen 4-1 Hertha BSC Berlin — Result, H2H & Form
German Bundesliga 2022-2023Sun, 05 Mar 2023 14:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Bayer Leverkusen75%
- Bayer Leverkusen 75%
- Draw 17%
- Hertha BSC Berlin 9%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Bayer Leverkusen, rating it at 74.5%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 6 times, and Bayer Leverkusen won 2 of 6, with 3 drawn. Across 6 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 16.7%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Hertha BSC Berlin's games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 3 Sep 2026.
Bayer Leverkusen: LWWLW
Hertha BSC Berlin: WDWWD
Head-to-head
As of 3 Sep 2026.
- 6Games
- 2.83Avg goals
- 67%Both scored
- 67%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-05 | Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC Berlin | 4–1 |
| 2022-09-10 | Hertha BSC Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen | 2–2 |
| 2022-04-02 | Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC Berlin | 2–1 |
| 2021-11-07 | Hertha BSC Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen | 1–1 |
| 2021-03-21 | Hertha BSC Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen | 3–0 |
| 2020-11-29 | Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC Berlin | 0–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC Berlin?
- Tofiko's model favours Bayer Leverkusen (75% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC Berlin kick off?
- Sun, 05 Mar 2023 14:30 GMT — German Bundesliga 2022-2023.
- What is the Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC Berlin head-to-head record?
- In their last 6 meetings: 3 home wins, 3 draws, 0 away wins, averaging 2.83 goals per game.