Borussia Dortmundvs
SV Werder BremenBorussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen Prediction, H2H & Stats
German BundesligaSat, 10 Oct 2026 13:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Borussia Dortmund72%
- Borussia Dortmund 72%
- Draw 18%
- SV Werder Bremen 10%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Borussia Dortmund, rating it at 71.8%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Borussia Dortmund won 7 of 10, with 2 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. SV Werder Bremen's last 5 produced 20 goals — 4.0 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 3. Borussia Dortmund's 5 produced 12, at 2.4 per game.
The model puts the draw at 18.5%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- SV Werder Bremen's games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Borussia Dortmund: WDLWW
SV Werder Bremen: WWWWL
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 2.80Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 60%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | SV Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–2 |
| 2026-01-13 | Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen | 3–0 |
| 2025-01-25 | Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen | 2–2 |
| 2024-08-31 | SV Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–0 |
| 2024-03-09 | Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund | 1–2 |
| 2023-10-20 | Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen | 1–0 |
| 2023-02-11 | Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–2 |
| 2022-08-20 | Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen | 2–3 |
| 2021-04-18 | Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen | 4–1 |
| 2020-12-15 | Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund | 1–2 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen?
- Tofiko's model favours Borussia Dortmund (72% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen kick off?
- Sat, 10 Oct 2026 13:30 GMT — German Bundesliga.
- What is the Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 3 home wins, 2 draws, 5 away wins, averaging 2.80 goals per game.