VfB Stuttgartvs
Borussia DortmundVfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, H2H & Stats
German BundesligaSat, 19 Sep 2026 13:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Borussia Dortmund42%
- VfB Stuttgart 32%
- Draw 25%
- Borussia Dortmund 42%
Model families: split (goals models vs Elo)
Analysis
Our model families split, but the ensemble picks Borussia Dortmund, rating it at 42.2%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and VfB Stuttgart won 4 of 10, with 2 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. VfB Stuttgart's last 5 produced 27 goals — 5.4 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 3. Borussia Dortmund's 5 produced 12, at 2.4 per game.
The model puts the draw at 25.3%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- VfB Stuttgart's games are very high-scoring at 5.4 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
VfB Stuttgart: WWWWL
Borussia Dortmund: WDLWW
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 3.70Avg goals
- 60%Both scored
- 70%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–2 |
| 2025-11-22 | Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart | 3–3 |
| 2025-02-08 | Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart | 1–2 |
| 2024-09-22 | VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund | 5–1 |
| 2024-04-06 | Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart | 0–1 |
| 2023-11-11 | VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund | 2–1 |
| 2023-04-15 | VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund | 3–3 |
| 2022-10-22 | Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart | 5–0 |
| 2022-04-08 | VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–2 |
| 2021-11-20 | Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart | 2–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
- Tofiko's model favours Borussia Dortmund (42% probability), though our model families split on this one.
- What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
- Sat, 19 Sep 2026 13:30 GMT — German Bundesliga.
- What is the VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 4 home wins, 2 draws, 4 away wins, averaging 3.70 goals per game.