Derby County F.C.vs
Bolton Wanderers F.C.Derby County F.C. vs Bolton Wanderers F.C. Prediction, H2H & Form
EFL ChampionshipFri, 06 Nov 2026 20:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Bolton Wanderers F.C.41%
- Derby County F.C.
- Draw
- Bolton Wanderers F.C.
Model families: split (goals models vs Elo)
Free. Saves this pick to My Picks, settles it when the match ends, and can email you an hour before kick-off and with the result — if you say yes.
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Model probabilities for Double Chance and Over/Under 2.5; both-teams-to-score from the record and the bookmakers' price. Free, no account.
Double Chance
- Derby County F.C. or draw59%
- Draw or Bolton Wanderers F.C.68%
- Derby County F.C. or Bolton Wanderers F.C.73%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Over 2.551%
- Under 2.549%
Both teams to score
- Derby County F.C., last 10 home games6 of 10
- Bolton Wanderers F.C., last 10 away games6 of 10
- League rate, last 12 months (565 games)59%
Our own BTTS number is not shown yet: it has not passed our accuracy check.
Analysis
Our model families split, but the ensemble picks Bolton Wanderers F.C., rating it at 40.5% — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
They arrive from very different football. Bolton Wanderers F.C.'s last 5 produced 20 goals — 4.0 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 4. Derby County F.C.'s 5 produced 11, at 2.2 per game.
What to keep in mind
- Bolton Wanderers F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
Recent form
As of 14 Oct 2026. Kickoff is still 24 days away, so these are today's results, not the form either side will carry into this match.
Derby County F.C.: DDLLL
Bolton Wanderers F.C.: WLWWL
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Derby County F.C. vs Bolton Wanderers F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Bolton Wanderers F.C. (41% probability), though our model families split on this one.
- What time does Derby County F.C. vs Bolton Wanderers F.C. kick off?
- Fri, 06 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT — EFL Championship.