Almeriavs
ElcheAlmeria 2-1 Elche — Result, H2H & Form
La Liga 2022-2023Tue, 02 May 2023 17:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Almeria45%
- Almeria 45%
- Draw 23%
- Elche 31%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Almeria, rating it at 45.1%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Almeria won 1 of 2, with 1 drawn. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 45.1% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Elche's last 5 produced 19 goals — 3.8 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 4. Almeria's 5 produced 11, at 2.2 per game.
The model puts the draw at 23.4%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 3 Sep 2026.
Almeria: LLWWW
Elche: LLDWD
Head-to-head
As of 3 Sep 2026.
- 2Games
- 2.50Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-02 | Almeria vs Elche | 2–1 |
| 2022-08-22 | Elche vs Almeria | 1–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Almeria vs Elche?
- Tofiko's model favours Almeria (45% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Almeria vs Elche kick off?
- Tue, 02 May 2023 17:30 GMT — La Liga 2022-2023.
- What is the Almeria vs Elche head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins, averaging 2.50 goals per game.