Rayo Vallecanovs
Athletic BilbaoRayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction, H2H & Stats
La LigaSun, 11 Oct 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Rayo Vallecano35%
- Rayo Vallecano 35%
- Draw 35%
- Athletic Bilbao 30%
Model families: split (goals models vs Elo)
Analysis
Our model families split, but the ensemble picks Rayo Vallecano, rating it at 35.4%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Rayo Vallecano won 1 of 10, with 2 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. Athletic Bilbao's last 5 produced 23 goals — 4.6 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 1. Rayo Vallecano's 5 produced 14, at 2.8 per game.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Athletic Bilbao's games are very high-scoring at 4.6 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Rayo Vallecano: WDLLW
Athletic Bilbao: WWDWW
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 2.40Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao | 1–1 |
| 2025-08-25 | Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano | 1–0 |
| 2025-04-13 | Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano | 3–1 |
| 2024-12-01 | Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao | 1–2 |
| 2024-05-25 | Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao | 0–1 |
| 2023-12-02 | Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano | 4–0 |
| 2023-03-05 | Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao | 0–0 |
| 2022-09-17 | Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano | 3–2 |
| 2022-01-23 | Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao | 0–1 |
| 2021-09-21 | Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano | 1–2 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao?
- Tofiko's model favours Rayo Vallecano (35% probability), though our model families split on this one.
- What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao kick off?
- Sun, 11 Oct 2026 15:00 GMT — La Liga.
- What is the Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 4 home wins, 2 draws, 4 away wins, averaging 2.40 goals per game.