Real Madrid CFvs
Villarreal CFReal Madrid CF vs Villarreal CF Prediction, H2H & Stats
La LigaSun, 11 Oct 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Real Madrid CF64%
- Real Madrid CF 64%
- Draw 22%
- Villarreal CF 14%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Real Madrid CF, rating it at 64.0%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Real Madrid CF won 4 of 10, with 3 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 22.5%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Real Madrid CF: DWWWW
Villarreal CF: LDWWL
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 3.20Avg goals
- 60%Both scored
- 60%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Villarreal CF vs Real Madrid CF | 0–2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Real Madrid CF vs Villarreal CF | 3–1 |
| 2025-03-15 | Villarreal CF vs Real Madrid CF | 1–2 |
| 2024-10-05 | Real Madrid CF vs Villarreal CF | 2–0 |
| 2024-05-19 | Villarreal vs Real Madrid | 4–4 |
| 2023-12-17 | Real Madrid vs Villarreal | 4–1 |
| 2023-04-08 | Real Madrid vs Villarreal | 2–3 |
| 2023-01-07 | Villarreal vs Real Madrid | 2–1 |
| 2022-02-12 | Villarreal vs Real Madrid | 0–0 |
| 2021-09-25 | Real Madrid vs Villarreal | 0–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Real Madrid CF vs Villarreal CF?
- Tofiko's model favours Real Madrid CF (64% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Real Madrid CF vs Villarreal CF kick off?
- Sun, 11 Oct 2026 15:00 GMT — La Liga.
- What is the Real Madrid CF vs Villarreal CF head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 4 home wins, 3 draws, 3 away wins, averaging 3.20 goals per game.