Deportivo Alavesvs
Atletico MadridDeportivo Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, H2H & Stats
La LigaSun, 11 Oct 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Atletico Madrid55%
- Deportivo Alaves 19%
- Draw 26%
- Atletico Madrid 55%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Atletico Madrid, rating it at 55.3%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Deportivo Alaves won none of them. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. Atletico Madrid's last 5 produced 18 goals — 3.6 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 4. Deportivo Alaves's 5 produced 10, at 2.0 per game.
The model puts the draw at 25.6%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Deportivo Alaves: WWDLW
Atletico Madrid: LWLWW
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 2.10Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 40%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo Alaves | 1–0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Deportivo Alaves vs Atletico Madrid | 1–1 |
| 2025-05-03 | Deportivo Alaves vs Atletico Madrid | 0–0 |
| 2024-11-23 | Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo Alaves | 2–1 |
| 2024-04-21 | Alaves vs Atletico Madrid | 2–0 |
| 2023-10-29 | Atletico Madrid vs Alaves | 2–1 |
| 2022-04-02 | Atletico Madrid vs Alaves | 4–1 |
| 2021-09-25 | Alaves vs Atletico Madrid | 1–0 |
| 2021-03-21 | Atletico Madrid vs Alaves | 1–0 |
| 2021-01-03 | Alaves vs Atletico Madrid | 1–2 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Deportivo Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
- Tofiko's model favours Atletico Madrid (55% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Deportivo Alaves vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
- Sun, 11 Oct 2026 15:00 GMT — La Liga.
- What is the Deportivo Alaves vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 7 home wins, 2 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.10 goals per game.