Rayo Vallecanovs
AlmeriaRayo Vallecano 0-1 Almeria — Result, H2H & Form
La Liga 2023-2024Sun, 05 May 2024 19:00 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Rayo Vallecano53%
- Rayo Vallecano 53%
- Draw 24%
- Almeria 23%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick Rayo Vallecano, rating it at 53.3%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and Rayo Vallecano won 2 of 4. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 53.3% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Rayo Vallecano's last 5 produced 20 goals — 4.0 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 5. Almeria's 5 produced 11, at 2.2 per game.
The model puts the draw at 23.8%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Rayo Vallecano's games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 2 Sep 2026.
Rayo Vallecano: LDLLW
Almeria: LLWWW
Head-to-head
As of 2 Sep 2026.
- 4Games
- 2.25Avg goals
- 25%Both scored
- 25%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-05 | Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria | 0–1 |
| 2023-08-11 | Almeria vs Rayo Vallecano | 0–2 |
| 2023-02-06 | Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria | 2–0 |
| 2022-10-08 | Almeria vs Rayo Vallecano | 3–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria?
- Tofiko's model favours Rayo Vallecano (53% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria kick off?
- Sun, 05 May 2024 19:00 GMT — La Liga 2023-2024.
- What is the Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 2.25 goals per game.