FC Metzvs
Toulouse FCFC Metz vs Toulouse FC Prediction, H2H & Stats
Ligue 1Sun, 15 Mar 2026 16:15 GMTStatus: finished
Final: FC Metz 3–4 Toulouse FC
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Toulouse FC47%
- FC Metz 28%
- Draw 25%
- Toulouse FC 47%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Toulouse FC, rating it at 46.9%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and FC Metz won none of them. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 46.9% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. FC Metz's last 5 produced 19 goals — 3.8 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 4. Toulouse FC's 5 produced 8, at 1.6 per game.
The model puts the draw at 24.6%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
FC Metz: WWWWD
Toulouse FC: WDDDW
Head-to-head
- 4Games
- 3.75Avg goals
- 25%Both scored
- 75%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | FC Metz vs Toulouse FC | 3–4 |
| 2025-10-19 | Toulouse FC vs FC Metz | 4–0 |
| 2024-01-14 | FC Metz vs Toulouse | 0–1 |
| 2023-10-01 | Toulouse vs FC Metz | 3–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win FC Metz vs Toulouse FC?
- Tofiko's model favours Toulouse FC (47% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does FC Metz vs Toulouse FC kick off?
- Sun, 15 Mar 2026 16:15 GMT — Ligue 1.
- What is the FC Metz vs Toulouse FC head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 3.75 goals per game.