Montpellier HSCvs
Paris Saint-Germain FCMontpellier HSC 1-4 Paris Saint-Germain FC — Result, H2H & Form
Ligue 1 2024-2025Sat, 10 May 2025 19:00 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Paris Saint-Germain FC72%
- Montpellier HSC 11%
- Draw 17%
- Paris Saint-Germain FC 72%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Paris Saint-Germain FC, rating it at 71.9%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Montpellier HSC won none of them. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 17.5%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 2 Sep 2026.
Montpellier HSC: DWWDW
Paris Saint-Germain FC: DDLWD
Head-to-head
As of 2 Sep 2026.
- 10Games
- 4.70Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 90%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-10 | Montpellier HSC vs Paris Saint-Germain FC | 1–4 |
| 2024-08-23 | Paris Saint-Germain FC vs Montpellier HSC | 6–0 |
| 2024-03-17 | Montpellier HSC vs Paris Saint-Germain | 2–6 |
| 2023-11-03 | Paris Saint-Germain vs Montpellier HSC | 3–0 |
| 2023-02-01 | Montpellier HSC vs Paris Saint-Germain | 1–3 |
| 2022-08-13 | Paris Saint-Germain vs Montpellier HSC | 5–2 |
| 2022-05-14 | Montpellier HSC vs Paris Saint-Germain | 0–4 |
| 2021-09-25 | Paris Saint-Germain vs Montpellier HSC | 2–0 |
| 2021-01-22 | Paris Saint-Germain vs Montpellier HSC | 4–0 |
| 2020-12-05 | Montpellier HSC vs Paris Saint-Germain | 1–3 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Montpellier HSC vs Paris Saint-Germain FC?
- Tofiko's model favours Paris Saint-Germain FC (72% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Montpellier HSC vs Paris Saint-Germain FC kick off?
- Sat, 10 May 2025 19:00 GMT — Ligue 1 2024-2025.
- What is the Montpellier HSC vs Paris Saint-Germain FC head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 5 home wins, 0 draws, 5 away wins, averaging 4.70 goals per game.