Almeria 2-2 Atletico Madrid — Result, H2H & Form

Both model families pick Atletico Madrid, rating it at 63.7%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.

The two have met 4 times, and Almeria won none of them. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 63.7% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.

The model puts the draw at 19.7%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.

This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.