Almeriavs
VillarrealAlmeria 1-2 Villarreal — Result, H2H & Form
La Liga 2023-2024Sun, 21 Apr 2024 14:15 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Villarreal59%
- Almeria 21%
- Draw 20%
- Villarreal 59%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Villarreal, rating it at 58.5%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and Almeria won none of them. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 58.5% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 20.4%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 2 Sep 2026.
Almeria: LLWWW
Villarreal: LDDWW
Head-to-head
As of 2 Sep 2026.
- 4Games
- 2.75Avg goals
- 75%Both scored
- 75%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-21 | Almeria vs Villarreal | 1–2 |
| 2023-09-17 | Villarreal vs Almeria | 2–1 |
| 2023-03-04 | Almeria vs Villarreal | 0–2 |
| 2022-10-23 | Villarreal(N) vs Almeria | 2–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Almeria vs Villarreal?
- Tofiko's model favours Villarreal (59% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Almeria vs Villarreal kick off?
- Sun, 21 Apr 2024 14:15 GMT — La Liga 2023-2024.
- What is the Almeria vs Villarreal head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 2.75 goals per game.