US Cremonesevs
ACF FiorentinaUS Cremonese 1-4 ACF Fiorentina — Result, H2H & Form
Italian Serie A 2025-2026Mon, 16 Mar 2026 19:45 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs ACF Fiorentina45%
- US Cremonese 30%
- Draw 24%
- ACF Fiorentina 45%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick ACF Fiorentina, rating it at 45.3%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and US Cremonese won none of them. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 45.3% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. ACF Fiorentina's last 5 produced 18 goals — 3.6 per game; they scored in 3 of them and conceded in 5. US Cremonese's 5 produced 7, at 1.4 per game.
The model puts the draw at 24.4%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 1 Sep 2026.
US Cremonese: LLWWD
ACF Fiorentina: LLWDD
Head-to-head
As of 1 Sep 2026.
- 4Games
- 3.25Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | US Cremonese vs ACF Fiorentina | 1–4 |
| 2026-01-04 | ACF Fiorentina vs US Cremonese | 1–0 |
| 2023-03-12 | Cremonese vs Fiorentina | 0–2 |
| 2022-08-14 | Fiorentina vs Cremonese | 3–2 |
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FAQ
- Who will win US Cremonese vs ACF Fiorentina?
- Tofiko's model favours ACF Fiorentina (45% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does US Cremonese vs ACF Fiorentina kick off?
- Mon, 16 Mar 2026 19:45 GMT — Italian Serie A 2025-2026.
- What is the US Cremonese vs ACF Fiorentina head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 3.25 goals per game.