Hertha BSC Berlinvs
1.FSV Mainz 05Hertha BSC Berlin 1-1 1.FSV Mainz 05 — Result, H2H & Form
German Bundesliga 2022-2023Sat, 11 Mar 2023 14:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs 1.FSV Mainz 0544%
- Hertha BSC Berlin 32%
- Draw 24%
- 1.FSV Mainz 05 44%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick 1.FSV Mainz 05, rating it at 44.1%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 6 times, and Hertha BSC Berlin won none of them. Across 6 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 24.2%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- 1.FSV Mainz 05's games are very high-scoring at 4.4 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 3 Sep 2026.
Hertha BSC Berlin: WDWWD
1.FSV Mainz 05: DWWWD
Head-to-head
As of 3 Sep 2026.
- 6Games
- 2.17Avg goals
- 67%Both scored
- 33%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-11 | Hertha BSC Berlin vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1–1 |
| 2022-09-16 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC Berlin | 1–1 |
| 2022-05-07 | Hertha BSC Berlin vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1–2 |
| 2021-12-14 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC Berlin | 4–0 |
| 2021-05-03 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Hertha BSC Berlin | 1–1 |
| 2020-12-15 | Hertha BSC Berlin vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 0–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Hertha BSC Berlin vs 1.FSV Mainz 05?
- Tofiko's model favours 1.FSV Mainz 05 (44% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Hertha BSC Berlin vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
- Sat, 11 Mar 2023 14:30 GMT — German Bundesliga 2022-2023.
- What is the Hertha BSC Berlin vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 head-to-head record?
- In their last 6 meetings: 1 home wins, 4 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.17 goals per game.