Burnleyvs
Luton TownBurnley 1-1 Luton Town — Result, H2H & Form
English Premier League 2023-2024Fri, 12 Jan 2024 19:45 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Burnley45%
- Burnley 45%
- Draw 23%
- Luton Town 33%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick Burnley, rating it at 44.7%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Burnley won 1 of 2, with 1 drawn. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 44.7% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 22.8%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Luton Town's games are very high-scoring at 4.4 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 2 Sep 2026.
Burnley: DLDLD
Luton Town: WLLDW
Head-to-head
As of 2 Sep 2026.
- 2Games
- 2.50Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-12 | Burnley vs Luton Town | 1–1 |
| 2023-10-03 | Luton Town vs Burnley | 1–2 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Burnley vs Luton Town?
- Tofiko's model favours Burnley (45% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Burnley vs Luton Town kick off?
- Fri, 12 Jan 2024 19:45 GMT — English Premier League 2023-2024.
- What is the Burnley vs Luton Town head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 0 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.50 goals per game.