Chelsea F.C.vs
AFC BournemouthChelsea F.C. vs AFC Bournemouth Prediction, H2H & Stats
English Premier LeagueSat, 10 Oct 2026 14:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Chelsea F.C.51%
- Chelsea F.C. 51%
- Draw 26%
- AFC Bournemouth 23%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Chelsea F.C., rating it at 51.1%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 8 times, and Chelsea F.C. won 1 of 8, with 4 drawn. Across 8 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 25.7%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Chelsea F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Chelsea F.C.: LWLWL
AFC Bournemouth: WWDDW
Head-to-head
- 8Games
- 2.25Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | Chelsea F.C. vs AFC Bournemouth | 2–2 |
| 2025-12-06 | AFC Bournemouth vs Chelsea F.C. | 0–0 |
| 2025-01-14 | Chelsea F.C. vs AFC Bournemouth | 2–2 |
| 2024-09-14 | AFC Bournemouth vs Chelsea F.C. | 0–1 |
| 2024-05-19 | Chelsea FC vs AFC Bournemouth | 2–1 |
| 2023-09-17 | AFC Bournemouth vs Chelsea FC | 0–0 |
| 2023-05-06 | AFC Bournemouth vs Chelsea FC | 1–3 |
| 2022-12-27 | Chelsea FC vs AFC Bournemouth | 2–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Chelsea F.C. vs AFC Bournemouth?
- Tofiko's model favours Chelsea F.C. (51% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Chelsea F.C. vs AFC Bournemouth kick off?
- Sat, 10 Oct 2026 14:00 GMT — English Premier League.
- What is the Chelsea F.C. vs AFC Bournemouth head-to-head record?
- In their last 8 meetings: 2 home wins, 4 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 2.25 goals per game.