Arsenal F.C.vs
Leeds United F.C.Arsenal F.C. vs Leeds United F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
English Premier LeagueSat, 10 Oct 2026 14:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Arsenal F.C.73%
- Arsenal F.C. 73%
- Draw 18%
- Leeds United F.C. 9%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Arsenal F.C., rating it at 73.2%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 8 times, and Arsenal F.C. won 2 of 8, with 1 drawn. Across 8 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 17.9%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Arsenal F.C.: WDWWW
Leeds United F.C.: WLLWD
Head-to-head
- 8Games
- 3.63Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 75%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Leeds United F.C. vs Arsenal F.C. | 0–4 |
| 2025-08-23 | Arsenal F.C. vs Leeds United F.C. | 5–0 |
| 2023-04-01 | Arsenal vs Leeds United | 4–1 |
| 2022-10-16 | Leeds United vs Arsenal | 0–1 |
| 2022-05-08 | Arsenal vs Leeds United | 2–1 |
| 2021-12-18 | Leeds United vs Arsenal | 1–4 |
| 2021-02-14 | Arsenal vs Leeds United | 4–2 |
| 2020-11-22 | Leeds United vs Arsenal | 0–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Arsenal F.C. vs Leeds United F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Arsenal F.C. (73% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Arsenal F.C. vs Leeds United F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 10 Oct 2026 14:00 GMT — English Premier League.
- What is the Arsenal F.C. vs Leeds United F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 8 meetings: 4 home wins, 1 draws, 3 away wins, averaging 3.63 goals per game.