Derby County F.C.vs
Middlesbrough F.C.Derby County F.C. vs Middlesbrough F.C. Prediction, H2H & Form
EFL ChampionshipTue, 16 Mar 2027 19:45 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Middlesbrough F.C.39%
- Derby County F.C.
- Draw
- Middlesbrough F.C.
Model families: split (goals models vs Elo)
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Model probabilities for Double Chance and Over/Under 2.5; both-teams-to-score from the record and the bookmakers' price. Free, no account.
Double Chance
- Derby County F.C. or draw61%
- Draw or Middlesbrough F.C.67%
- Derby County F.C. or Middlesbrough F.C.72%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Over 2.547%
- Under 2.553%
Both teams to score
- Derby County F.C., last 10 home games6 of 10
- Middlesbrough F.C., last 10 away games7 of 10
- League rate, last 12 months (565 games)59%
Our own BTTS number is not shown yet: it has not passed our accuracy check.
Analysis
Our model families split, but the ensemble picks Middlesbrough F.C., rating it at 38.9% — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Derby County F.C. won 1 of 2. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast.
They arrive from very different football. Middlesbrough F.C.'s last 5 produced 21 goals — 4.2 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 4. Derby County F.C.'s 5 produced 11, at 2.2 per game.
What to keep in mind
- Middlesbrough F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.2 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
Recent form
As of 14 Oct 2026. Kickoff is still 153 days away, so these are today's results, not the form either side will carry into this match.
Derby County F.C.: DDLLL
Middlesbrough F.C.: WWDDW
Head-to-head
As of 14 Oct 2026. Kickoff is still 153 days away, so these are the meetings played so far, and the two may meet again before it.
- 2Games
- 2.00Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | Derby County F.C. vs Middlesbrough F.C. | 1–0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Middlesbrough F.C. vs Derby County F.C. | 2–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Derby County F.C. vs Middlesbrough F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Middlesbrough F.C. (39% probability), though our model families split on this one.
- What time does Derby County F.C. vs Middlesbrough F.C. kick off?
- Tue, 16 Mar 2027 19:45 GMT — EFL Championship.
- What is the Derby County F.C. vs Middlesbrough F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins, averaging 2.00 goals per game.