Middlesbrough F.C.vs
Derby County F.C.Middlesbrough F.C. vs Derby County F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
EFL ChampionshipSat, 05 Dec 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Middlesbrough F.C.52%
- Middlesbrough F.C. 52%
- Draw 26%
- Derby County F.C. 22%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Middlesbrough F.C., rating it at 52.4%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Middlesbrough F.C. won 1 of 2. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 52.4% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 25.8%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Middlesbrough F.C.: WDLDL
Derby County F.C.: DLWLL
Head-to-head
- 2Games
- 2.00Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | Derby County F.C. vs Middlesbrough F.C. | 1–0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Middlesbrough F.C. vs Derby County F.C. | 2–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Middlesbrough F.C. vs Derby County F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Middlesbrough F.C. (52% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Middlesbrough F.C. vs Derby County F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 05 Dec 2026 15:00 GMT — EFL Championship.
- What is the Middlesbrough F.C. vs Derby County F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins, averaging 2.00 goals per game.