Middlesbrough F.C.vs
Derby County F.C.Middlesbrough F.C. vs Derby County F.C. Prediction, H2H & Form
EFL ChampionshipSat, 05 Dec 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Middlesbrough F.C.52%
- Middlesbrough F.C.
- Draw
- Derby County F.C.
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Free. Saves this pick to My Picks, settles it when the match ends, and can email you an hour before kick-off and with the result — if you say yes.
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Model probabilities for Double Chance and Over/Under 2.5; both-teams-to-score from the record and the bookmakers' price. Free, no account.
Double Chance
- Middlesbrough F.C. or draw78%
- Draw or Derby County F.C.48%
- Middlesbrough F.C. or Derby County F.C.74%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Over 2.549%
- Under 2.551%
Both teams to score
- Middlesbrough F.C., last 10 home games7 of 10
- Derby County F.C., last 10 away games6 of 10
- League rate, last 12 months (565 games)59%
Our own BTTS number is not shown yet: it has not passed our accuracy check.
Analysis
Both model families pick Middlesbrough F.C., rating it at 52.4% — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Middlesbrough F.C. won 1 of 2. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast.
They arrive from very different football. Middlesbrough F.C.'s last 5 produced 21 goals — 4.2 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 4. Derby County F.C.'s 5 produced 11, at 2.2 per game.
What to keep in mind
- Middlesbrough F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.2 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
Recent form
As of 14 Oct 2026. Kickoff is still 52 days away, so these are today's results, not the form either side will carry into this match.
Middlesbrough F.C.: WWDDW
Derby County F.C.: DDLLL
Head-to-head
As of 14 Oct 2026. Kickoff is still 52 days away, so these are the meetings played so far, and the two may meet again before it.
- 2Games
- 2.00Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | Derby County F.C. vs Middlesbrough F.C. | 1–0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Middlesbrough F.C. vs Derby County F.C. | 2–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Middlesbrough F.C. vs Derby County F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Middlesbrough F.C. (52% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Middlesbrough F.C. vs Derby County F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 05 Dec 2026 15:00 GMT — EFL Championship.
- What is the Middlesbrough F.C. vs Derby County F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins, averaging 2.00 goals per game.