Derby County F.C.vs
Stoke City F.C.Derby County F.C. vs Stoke City F.C. Prediction, H2H & Form
EFL ChampionshipSat, 17 Oct 2026 14:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Derby County F.C.45%
- Derby County F.C.
- Draw
- Stoke City F.C.
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Free. Saves this pick to My Picks, settles it when the match ends, and can email you an hour before kick-off and with the result — if you say yes.
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Model probabilities for Double Chance and Over/Under 2.5; both-teams-to-score from the record and the bookmakers' price. Free, no account.
Double Chance
- Derby County F.C. or draw70%
- Draw or Stoke City F.C.55%
- Derby County F.C. or Stoke City F.C.76%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Over 2.546%
- Under 2.554%
Both teams to score
- Derby County F.C., last 10 home games6 of 10
- Stoke City F.C., last 10 away games6 of 10
- League rate, last 12 months (557 games)59%
Our own BTTS number is not shown yet: it has not passed our accuracy check.
Analysis
Both model families pick Derby County F.C., rating it at 45.4% — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Derby County F.C. won 1 of 2. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast.
What to keep in mind
- Our number and the market's own, side by side. Where they differ most, our record has been worst, so a difference is not a tip.
Recent form
As of 13 Oct 2026.
Derby County F.C.: DDLLL
Stoke City F.C.: WWWDW
Head-to-head
As of 13 Oct 2026.
- 2Games
- 3.00Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Derby County F.C. vs Stoke City F.C. | 2–0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Stoke City F.C. vs Derby County F.C. | 3–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Derby County F.C. vs Stoke City F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Derby County F.C. (45% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Derby County F.C. vs Stoke City F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 17 Oct 2026 14:00 GMT — EFL Championship.
- What is the Derby County F.C. vs Stoke City F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins, averaging 3.00 goals per game.