Derby County F.C.vs
Watford F.C.Derby County F.C. vs Watford F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
EFL ChampionshipSat, 28 Nov 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Derby County F.C.57%
- Derby County F.C. 57%
- Draw 24%
- Watford F.C. 19%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Derby County F.C., rating it at 56.8%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Derby County F.C. won none of them. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 56.8% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 24.4%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 2 games, no win for the side we back.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Derby County F.C.: DLWLL
Watford F.C.: LWDLL
Head-to-head
- 2Games
- 3.50Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Watford F.C. vs Derby County F.C. | 2–0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Derby County F.C. vs Watford F.C. | 2–3 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Derby County F.C. vs Watford F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Derby County F.C. (57% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Derby County F.C. vs Watford F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 28 Nov 2026 15:00 GMT — EFL Championship.
- What is the Derby County F.C. vs Watford F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 3.50 goals per game.