Derby County F.C.vs
Wrexham A.F.C.Derby County F.C. vs Wrexham A.F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
EFL ChampionshipSat, 10 Oct 2026 14:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Derby County F.C.46%
- Derby County F.C. 46%
- Draw 25%
- Wrexham A.F.C. 30%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Derby County F.C., rating it at 45.6%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Derby County F.C. won none of them. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 45.6% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 24.8%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 2 games, no win for the side we back.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Derby County F.C.: DLWLL
Wrexham A.F.C.: LLLWW
Head-to-head
- 2Games
- 2.50Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Derby County F.C. vs Wrexham A.F.C. | 1–2 |
| 2025-09-27 | Wrexham A.F.C. vs Derby County F.C. | 1–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Derby County F.C. vs Wrexham A.F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Derby County F.C. (46% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Derby County F.C. vs Wrexham A.F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 10 Oct 2026 14:00 GMT — EFL Championship.
- What is the Derby County F.C. vs Wrexham A.F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 0 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.50 goals per game.