Leicester City F.C.vs
Derby County F.C.Leicester City F.C. 2-1 Derby County F.C. — Result, H2H & Form
EFL ChampionshipMon, 29 Dec 2025 19:45 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Derby County F.C.42%
- Leicester City F.C.
- Draw
- Derby County F.C.
Our number and the market's own, side by side. Where they differ most, our record has been worst, so a difference is not a tip.
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick Derby County F.C., rating it at 41.6% — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Leicester City F.C. won all of them. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast.
They arrive from very different football. Leicester City F.C.'s last 5 produced 22 goals — 4.4 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 4. Derby County F.C.'s 5 produced 11, at 2.2 per game.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 2 games, no win for the side we back.
- Leicester City F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.4 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
Recent form
As of 24 Sep 2026.
Leicester City F.C.: WDWLW
Derby County F.C.: DLLLW
Head-to-head
As of 24 Sep 2026.
- 2Games
- 3.50Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 100%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | Leicester City F.C. vs Derby County F.C. | 2–1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Derby County F.C. vs Leicester City F.C. | 1–3 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Leicester City F.C. vs Derby County F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Derby County F.C. (42% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Leicester City F.C. vs Derby County F.C. kick off?
- Mon, 29 Dec 2025 19:45 GMT — EFL Championship.
- What is the Leicester City F.C. vs Derby County F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 3.50 goals per game.