Queens Park Rangers F.C.vs
Derby County F.C.Queens Park Rangers F.C. vs Derby County F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
EFL ChampionshipWed, 14 Oct 2026 18:45 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Derby County F.C.45%
- Queens Park Rangers F.C. 30%
- Draw 25%
- Derby County F.C. 45%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Derby County F.C., rating it at 44.6%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Queens Park Rangers F.C. won none of them. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 44.6% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Queens Park Rangers F.C.'s last 5 produced 22 goals — 4.4 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 3. Derby County F.C.'s 5 produced 14, at 2.8 per game.
The model puts the draw at 25.3%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Queens Park Rangers F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.4 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Queens Park Rangers F.C.: LWWWW
Derby County F.C.: DLWLL
Head-to-head
- 2Games
- 3.00Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Queens Park Rangers F.C. vs Derby County F.C. | 2–3 |
| 2025-10-25 | Derby County F.C. vs Queens Park Rangers F.C. | 1–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Queens Park Rangers F.C. vs Derby County F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Derby County F.C. (45% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Queens Park Rangers F.C. vs Derby County F.C. kick off?
- Wed, 14 Oct 2026 18:45 GMT — EFL Championship.
- What is the Queens Park Rangers F.C. vs Derby County F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 3.00 goals per game.