Southampton F.C.vs
Derby County F.C.Southampton F.C. vs Derby County F.C. Prediction, H2H & Form
EFL ChampionshipSat, 21 Nov 2026 12:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Southampton F.C.57%
- Southampton F.C.
- Draw
- Derby County F.C.
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
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Model probabilities for Double Chance and Over/Under 2.5; both-teams-to-score from the record and the bookmakers' price. Free, no account.
Double Chance
- Southampton F.C. or draw80%
- Draw or Derby County F.C.43%
- Southampton F.C. or Derby County F.C.77%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Over 2.560%
- Under 2.540%
Both teams to score
- Southampton F.C., last 10 home games8 of 10
- Derby County F.C., last 10 away games6 of 10
- League rate, last 12 months (565 games)59%
Our own BTTS number is not shown yet: it has not passed our accuracy check.
Analysis
Both model families pick Southampton F.C., rating it at 57.0% — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Southampton F.C. won 1 of 2, with 1 drawn. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast.
Recent form
As of 14 Oct 2026. Kickoff is still 38 days away, so these are today's results, not the form either side will carry into this match.
Southampton F.C.: WLWWD
Derby County F.C.: DDLLL
Head-to-head
As of 14 Oct 2026. Kickoff is still 38 days away, so these are the meetings played so far, and the two may meet again before it.
- 2Games
- 2.50Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Southampton F.C. vs Derby County F.C. | 2–1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Derby County F.C. vs Southampton F.C. | 1–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Southampton F.C. vs Derby County F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Southampton F.C. (57% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Southampton F.C. vs Derby County F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 21 Nov 2026 12:30 GMT — EFL Championship.
- What is the Southampton F.C. vs Derby County F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins, averaging 2.50 goals per game.