Real Madridvs
AlmeriaReal Madrid 3-2 Almeria — Result, H2H & Form
La Liga 2023-2024Sun, 21 Jan 2024 15:15 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Real Madrid81%
- Real Madrid 81%
- Draw 14%
- Almeria 5%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Real Madrid, rating it at 81.0%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and Real Madrid won all of them. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 81.0% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 13.9%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 2 Sep 2026.
Real Madrid: WWWWW
Almeria: LLWWW
Head-to-head
As of 2 Sep 2026.
- 4Games
- 4.50Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 100%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-21 | Real Madrid vs Almeria | 3–2 |
| 2023-08-19 | Almeria vs Real Madrid | 1–3 |
| 2023-04-29 | Real Madrid vs Almeria | 4–2 |
| 2022-08-14 | Almeria vs Real Madrid | 1–2 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Real Madrid vs Almeria?
- Tofiko's model favours Real Madrid (81% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Real Madrid vs Almeria kick off?
- Sun, 21 Jan 2024 15:15 GMT — La Liga 2023-2024.
- What is the Real Madrid vs Almeria head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 4.50 goals per game.