Leicester City F.C.vs
Derby County F.C.Leicester City F.C. 2-1 Derby County F.C. — Result, H2H & Form
EFL ChampionshipMon, 29 Dec 2025 19:45 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Derby County F.C.42%
- Leicester City F.C. 36%
- Draw 23%
- Derby County F.C. 42%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick Derby County F.C., rating it at 41.6%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Leicester City F.C. won all of them. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 41.6% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 22.7%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 2 games, no win for the side we back.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 2 Sep 2026.
Leicester City F.C.: WDLLD
Derby County F.C.: WLDLL
Head-to-head
As of 2 Sep 2026.
- 2Games
- 3.50Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 100%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | Leicester City F.C. vs Derby County F.C. | 2–1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Derby County F.C. vs Leicester City F.C. | 1–3 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Leicester City F.C. vs Derby County F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Derby County F.C. (42% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Leicester City F.C. vs Derby County F.C. kick off?
- Mon, 29 Dec 2025 19:45 GMT — EFL Championship.
- What is the Leicester City F.C. vs Derby County F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 3.50 goals per game.