Notts County F.C.vs
Newport County A.F.C.Notts County F.C. 3-1 Newport County A.F.C. — Result, H2H & Form
EFL League Two 2025-2026Mon, 06 Apr 2026 14:00 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Notts County F.C.70%
- Notts County F.C. 70%
- Draw 18%
- Newport County A.F.C. 12%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Notts County F.C., rating it at 69.9%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Notts County F.C. won 1 of 2, with 1 drawn. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 69.9% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Newport County A.F.C.'s last 5 produced 22 goals — 4.4 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 4. Notts County F.C.'s 5 produced 11, at 2.2 per game.
The model puts the draw at 17.9%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Newport County A.F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.4 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 1 Sep 2026.
Notts County F.C.: WDDDD
Newport County A.F.C.: DLWDL
Head-to-head
As of 1 Sep 2026.
- 2Games
- 3.00Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Notts County F.C. vs Newport County A.F.C. | 3–1 |
| 2025-08-02 | Newport County A.F.C. vs Notts County F.C. | 1–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Notts County F.C. vs Newport County A.F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Notts County F.C. (70% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Notts County F.C. vs Newport County A.F.C. kick off?
- Mon, 06 Apr 2026 14:00 GMT — EFL League Two 2025-2026.
- What is the Notts County F.C. vs Newport County A.F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins, averaging 3.00 goals per game.