Crewe Alexandra F.C.vs
Rochdale A.F.C.Crewe Alexandra F.C. vs Rochdale A.F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
EFL League TwoSat, 17 Oct 2026 14:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Crewe Alexandra F.C.47%
- Crewe Alexandra F.C. 47%
- Draw 26%
- Rochdale A.F.C. 27%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Crewe Alexandra F.C., rating it at 47.5%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
They arrive from very different football. Rochdale A.F.C.'s last 5 produced 21 goals — 4.2 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 5. Crewe Alexandra F.C.'s 5 produced 13, at 2.6 per game.
The model puts the draw at 25.6%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Rochdale A.F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.2 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Crewe Alexandra F.C.: DLWDW
Rochdale A.F.C.: DLDDL
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Crewe Alexandra F.C. vs Rochdale A.F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Crewe Alexandra F.C. (47% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Crewe Alexandra F.C. vs Rochdale A.F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 17 Oct 2026 14:00 GMT — EFL League Two.