Crewe Alexandra F.C.vs
Newport County A.F.C.Crewe Alexandra F.C. vs Newport County A.F.C. Prediction, H2H & Form
EFL League TwoSat, 14 Nov 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Crewe Alexandra F.C.63%
- Crewe Alexandra F.C. 63%
- Draw 22%
- Newport County A.F.C. 16%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Crewe Alexandra F.C., rating it at 62.5%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Crewe Alexandra F.C. won none of them. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 62.5% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Newport County A.F.C.'s last 5 produced 20 goals — 4.0 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 4. Crewe Alexandra F.C.'s 5 produced 11, at 2.2 per game.
The model puts the draw at 21.7%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 2 games, no win for the side we back.
- Newport County A.F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 2 Sep 2026. Kickoff is still 74 days away, so these are today's results, not the form either side will carry into this match.
Crewe Alexandra F.C.: DDLWW
Newport County A.F.C.: LDLWD
Head-to-head
As of 2 Sep 2026. Kickoff is still 74 days away, so these are the meetings played so far, and the two may meet again before it.
- 2Games
- 3.00Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | Newport County A.F.C. vs Crewe Alexandra F.C. | 2–0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Crewe Alexandra F.C. vs Newport County A.F.C. | 2–2 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Crewe Alexandra F.C. vs Newport County A.F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Crewe Alexandra F.C. (63% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Crewe Alexandra F.C. vs Newport County A.F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 14 Nov 2026 15:00 GMT — EFL League Two.
- What is the Crewe Alexandra F.C. vs Newport County A.F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins, averaging 3.00 goals per game.