Paris Saint-Germain FCvs
Olympique LyonnaisParis Saint-Germain FC vs Olympique Lyonnais Prediction, H2H & Stats
Ligue 1Sun, 25 Oct 2026 19:45 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Paris Saint-Germain FC68%
- Paris Saint-Germain FC 68%
- Draw 20%
- Olympique Lyonnais 12%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Paris Saint-Germain FC, rating it at 67.6%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Paris Saint-Germain FC won 3 of 10, with 1 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. Olympique Lyonnais's last 5 produced 20 goals — 4.0 per game; they scored in 3 of them and conceded in 4. Paris Saint-Germain FC's 5 produced 10, at 2.0 per game.
The model puts the draw at 20.3%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Olympique Lyonnais's games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Paris Saint-Germain FC: DLWWD
Olympique Lyonnais: LWLWW
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 3.40Avg goals
- 80%Both scored
- 70%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Paris Saint-Germain FC vs Olympique Lyonnais | 1–2 |
| 2025-11-09 | Olympique Lyonnais vs Paris Saint-Germain FC | 2–3 |
| 2025-02-23 | Olympique Lyonnais vs Paris Saint-Germain FC | 2–3 |
| 2024-12-15 | Paris Saint-Germain FC vs Olympique Lyonnais | 3–1 |
| 2024-04-21 | Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyonnais | 4–1 |
| 2023-09-03 | Lyonnais vs Paris Saint-Germain | 1–4 |
| 2023-04-02 | Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyonnais | 0–1 |
| 2022-09-18 | Lyonnais vs Paris Saint-Germain | 0–1 |
| 2022-01-09 | Lyonnais vs Paris Saint-Germain | 1–1 |
| 2021-09-19 | Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyonnais | 2–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Paris Saint-Germain FC vs Olympique Lyonnais?
- Tofiko's model favours Paris Saint-Germain FC (68% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Paris Saint-Germain FC vs Olympique Lyonnais kick off?
- Sun, 25 Oct 2026 19:45 GMT — Ligue 1.
- What is the Paris Saint-Germain FC vs Olympique Lyonnais head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 3 home wins, 1 draws, 6 away wins, averaging 3.40 goals per game.