Evertonvs
WatfordEverton 2-5 Watford — Result, H2H & Form
English Premier League 2021-2022Sat, 23 Oct 2021 14:00 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Everton64%
- Everton 64%
- Draw 23%
- Watford 13%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick Everton, rating it at 63.8%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Everton won none of them. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 63.8% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 22.9%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 2 games, no win for the side we back.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 4 Sep 2026.
Everton: DWWDW
Watford: LDLDW
Head-to-head
As of 4 Sep 2026.
- 2Games
- 3.50Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-11 | Watford vs Everton | 0–0 |
| 2021-10-23 | Everton vs Watford | 2–5 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Everton vs Watford?
- Tofiko's model favours Everton (64% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Everton vs Watford kick off?
- Sat, 23 Oct 2021 14:00 GMT — English Premier League 2021-2022.
- What is the Everton vs Watford head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 0 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 3.50 goals per game.