Leeds Unitedvs
SouthamptonLeeds United 1-0 Southampton — Result, H2H & Form
English Premier League 2022-2023Sat, 25 Feb 2023 15:00 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Leeds United60%
- Leeds United 60%
- Draw 22%
- Southampton 18%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Leeds United, rating it at 60.3%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 6 times, and Leeds United won 3 of 6, with 2 drawn. Across 6 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. Southampton's last 5 produced 20 goals — 4.0 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 5. Leeds United's 5 produced 11, at 2.2 per game.
The model puts the draw at 21.8%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Southampton's games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 4 Sep 2026.
Leeds United: DWWWD
Southampton: DWLWL
Head-to-head
As of 4 Sep 2026.
- 6Games
- 2.17Avg goals
- 33%Both scored
- 33%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-25 | Leeds United vs Southampton | 1–0 |
| 2022-08-13 | Southampton vs Leeds United | 2–2 |
| 2022-04-02 | Leeds United vs Southampton | 1–1 |
| 2021-10-16 | Southampton vs Leeds United | 1–0 |
| 2021-05-18 | Southampton vs Leeds United | 0–2 |
| 2021-02-23 | Leeds United vs Southampton | 3–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Leeds United vs Southampton?
- Tofiko's model favours Leeds United (60% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Leeds United vs Southampton kick off?
- Sat, 25 Feb 2023 15:00 GMT — English Premier League 2022-2023.
- What is the Leeds United vs Southampton head-to-head record?
- In their last 6 meetings: 3 home wins, 2 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.17 goals per game.