Manchester Cityvs
WatfordManchester City 5-1 Watford — Result, H2H & Form
English Premier League 2021-2022Sat, 23 Apr 2022 14:00 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Manchester City86%
- Manchester City 86%
- Draw 11%
- Watford 3%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Manchester City, rating it at 85.6%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Manchester City won all of them. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 85.6% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 11.4%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 4 Sep 2026.
Manchester City: WWLWW
Watford: LDLDW
Head-to-head
As of 4 Sep 2026.
- 2Games
- 5.00Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 100%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-23 | Manchester City vs Watford | 5–1 |
| 2021-12-04 | Watford vs Manchester City | 1–3 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Manchester City vs Watford?
- Tofiko's model favours Manchester City (86% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Manchester City vs Watford kick off?
- Sat, 23 Apr 2022 14:00 GMT — English Premier League 2021-2022.
- What is the Manchester City vs Watford head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 5.00 goals per game.